18:40 | Casting the Final Vote

By show of hands, the audience is now split roughly half and half on the topic. I think technically that means that the opposing side won.

18:37 | Q&A

The Q&A session has been going on for over half an hour now. The last question is a fun one. With many CEOs, business owners, officials etc. educated abroad and now holding foreign passports rather than Chinese passports: "How can you have a superpower where the elites have already hedged their bets?"

Kygne says that despite this, they did in fact return to China to work in and serve China because "they recognize that China has the potential to be a superpower."

Says McGregor, "It's not just the business people, it's also the sons and daughters of government officials. It's actually a very small percentage of Chinese who study overseas actually return."

17:57 | Bringing It Back to the Question

McGregor hits back, saying that some of Kygne's points about peace and trade are like "talking points in the People's Daily." He reminds of the original point of the debate, being that China will not be a superpower by 2020, saying it's not about what sort of superpower it is but when they will become that power.

"When overseas, Hu Jintao travels as the 'president' not the 'party secretary.' They know their system is not exportable overseas," says McGregor. "We acknowledge the benefits of the trade they've done, but let's not whittle down the meaning of superpower to a question of trade relations."

17:53 | Cold War Mentality

The mic finally returns to Kygne. He says that unlike during the Cold War, "Power no longer comes from the barrel of the gun."

"China is the can-do superpower," he says, citing the nation's ability to build power plants in 20 months in parts of Africa, something the other major world powers have not been able to do.

"China is changing the destiny of a whole continent," says Kygne in relation to the increased presence of Africa in world trade due to China's building stronger ties with African nations. He thinks China is becoming a new kind of superpower, not based on military dominance.

17:46 | Not in 10 Years

According to Dickey, being a superpower means being able to make other nations do things they don't necessarily want them to do, and to be able to do so on a global scale–establishing client states, subservient allies, redesign and dominate trade flows, etc.

"In peace time, 10 years is not a long time," says Dickey. "China's not even seriously seeking what it would need to in order to achieve that kind of power in 10 years."

In terms of military, Dickey says that the Chinese military is not that highly developed. Most of their equipment is that which they inherited from the Soviet Union. China, says Dickey, will only have 1 or 2 aircraft carriers by 2020, and continues to cite similar examples.

"The Chinese are too smart to seek to become a superpower so quickly," says Dickey. "China is enjoying an almost uniquely benign global situation in which they can do what they really want to do which is to 'catch up.'"

17:40 | Reluctant Leader

"If you perceive a nation as a superpower, they can go ahead and act like one," says Authers. A good point that gets an "mmhmm" from the crowd. Superpower status is conferred, rather than earned.

Authers says however that it's not all show. He primarily focuses his argument on China's leadership that has emerged during the recent Global Financial Crisis and the strength and influence of the Chinese currency.

"The pressing internal needs of this country mean that it will need to continue to behave like a superpower, even if it doesn't want to," says Authers.

17:38 | Caught in the Act

McGregor also rebuts Kygne's revision of a Washington Post article that cited China as a possible upcoming superpower. But, he points out, "James only read the top of the article." McGregor reads the end of the article which states a less optimistic perspective, saying that overestimating China's position as a superpower is as dangerous as underestimating their potential.

17:32 | The Full Package

McGregor cites Kygne's speech as the "typical" line towed by the superpower proponents. "Let's remember what superpower means," says McGregor: militarily, diplomatically, economically a leader and a leader in ideas.

In terms of military, McGregor points out that the Chinese military is largely engaged with maintaining its own borders rather than projecting across the ocean. In addition, he feels that China benefits enormously by America's presence in Asia, particularly in their involvement in quelling / moderating conflicts in Asia. Were they to withdraw, he argues China would have to take on a much stronger leadership role.

In terms of global leadership, McGregor points out that at the UN, "all we look for is the Chinese veto," which gets a laugh from the audience.

17:27 | The Regular Diatribe

Kygne begins by listing off some of the more commonly know aspects of China's growing presence–it's rise to be the "banker" of the U.S., its position as a member of the UN security council, position as the world's second largest commodities, etc.

"But," he asks, "is this all a city built on sand?" He thinks not. Though cites the republication of books making this claim as a sign that it's just not happening.

17:17 | For and Against

David Pilling, Asia editor of the FT is our moderator, so that's the +1. Pilling asks for a show of hands. Who thinks China will be a superpower by 2020? The overwhelming majority thinks so. CW editors are split, if you care to know.

The motion: China will be a superpower by 2020

Supporting the motion:

James Kynge

John Authers

Opposing the motion:

Mure Dickey

Richard McGregor

Our opposing team are the two swing attendees.

17:10 | Panel Change-Up

Seems there are some changes to the panel that haven't been announced yet. The lone women, Gillian Tett, is conspicuously missing, and we now have five suited gentlemen on stage rather than the original four-person panel. We'll have to wait for the introductions to begin before telling you who's replaced who.

16:47 | The Line-up

So, who's going to be participating in the debate this evening?

• Edward Luce, VP at the World Bank and the WB's former lead economist for Southeast Asia.
  

• Gillian Tett, assistant editor at the Financial Times who oversees coverage of the global financial markets.

• James Kynge, editor of China Confidential.

• John Authers, investment editor for the Financial Times.

16:32 | Early Arrivals

We thought we'd be the only ones getting in and getting settled early prior to the FT debate, but here it is half an hour before the session starts and the place is already nearly half full.